Updated @ 12:21 PM, ET: The ‘official’ estimates for the three-day weekend have now been released and the order remains the same while numbers were adjusted up for the most part. This Means Wars was the only movie in the top five to be adjusted down as the movie pulled in an estimated $17.5 million which is $250k less than previously reported.
Original: Just by looking at the tracking for the 3-day weekend here (excluding President’s Day) it looks as if Safe House and not Ghost Rider will be taking the top spot at the box office from The Vow. Deadline currently is reporting a 1,2 and 3 of Safe House, The Vow, and Ghost Rider at $23.5, $23.1, and $22.3 (millions) respectively which is somewhat disappointed compared to last weekend’s pre-Valentine’s Day success, but it is still amazing considering that it is February–a month traditionally miserable for ticket sales.
This Means War is eyeing a $17.8 million 3-day debut which is really right up behind the leaders despite its poor early tracking; however, it remarkably will only come in at number five as Journey 2 just crushed in retention. With less than 30% falloff from last weekend, the Dwayne Johnson-lead family feature will come in around $20 million, and it is projected to win Monday when kids are out of school for President’s Day.